Iran lost the war, it won’t lose the state

inam ul rehman 

Modern superpower nation states are Goliaths in structure but Davids in action. The USA exemplifies it. In an instant it kidnapped the head of state of Venezuela and brought him to American shores. In another blatant example along with the state of Israel, it assassinated the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. No shaming or condemnation could stop its action. That is how nation states are built. 


Both the US and Israeli states have been campaigning for the removal of Khamenei since 2009. Many street revolts against the regime change took place but were unable to dislodge him.

The Assassination Aftermath

Khamenei’s assassination, along with that a former president and many army officers, led Iran to retaliate. But against whom?

What the US-Israel combo did was from the textbook of guerrilla warfare. Attack. Shoot. Kill. And leave for your bases.  The US is not on the ground. Israel is far from Iran. So, Iran’s anger is directed toward its neighbours where the US has its bases. With this the Iranian state is trying to engulf the whole neighbourhood in a war zone. However, it’s a dangerous ploy. Iran’s proxies in the Gulf have severely damaged its relations with neighbours. If Iran persists in attacking its neighbours in the garb of American bases there is no guarantee these countries won’t retaliate and provide boots on the ground for the US-Israel coalition.    

For the past six years the US-Israel coalition has been killing top commanders and scientists of Iran, yet it didn't retaliate. It didn't know whom to strike. Last year also it was attacked but apart from a few cosmetic drills Iran did nothing. The spy penetration into Iran's powerful inner circle is a subject that has not yet been researched enough. The penetration of Israeli spies into the inner circle of Iran is so deep that it is said that the Mossad circulated pictures of Khamenei’s body to Israel and the US before Iranian officials could click.

With so much penetration it is prudent to ask: who is shaping Iran’s retaliation strategy? 


Iran's Options 

Iran wants to spread this war, but its proxies have already been degraded. Iran cannot risk its soldiers fighting one to one with Israel. And if it does, it will be to the liking of Israel. 

Iran will continue to fire missiles for a few more days to placate its domestic and international supporters of the regime, and then calm down. It won't sacrifice itself for the death of its supreme leader. Nation states don't go for all out wars. Perseverance is its natural instinct to it. Even nation states have no religion. The only religion they follow is the religion of their interests. 


Post Khamenei Iran: Propaganda and Cult-Building

Post Khamenei’s death Iran may ease itself. It will use his death to build a cult of shaming Muslim rulers in the Gulf region. It has a sophisticated propaganda and ideological network that shapes perceptions across parts of the Muslim world. 

Iran has no wherewithal to combat the US-Israel war machine. Yet its propaganda is such that its followers are ready to believe that it will give a roaring defeat to both. Its followers blame Arab rulers for betraying Iran, as if Iran was their great friend. Iran was a bully for Arab rulers. Map its proxies, they targeted every Arab country. Israel was not their main target.

Rather than people asking how the Iranian state failed to protect its supreme commander when the US and Israel had openly declared that they will go for his head, the propaganda spread is that Khamenei refused to live in a bunker and embraced martyrdom! 

Given that the US and Israel openly and repeatedly declared their intent to eliminate Khamenei, keeping him alive would have been a decisive victory for the Iranian state, proof that its security apparatus is capable of neutralising the threat.


The Resilience of the Nation State

But modern nation states are built to accept defeat, surrender and yet survive to live another day. Iran is not Khamenei. A single person's death cannot destroy a modern nation state. If it does, then it is not a nation state but a medieval kingdom. Modern nation states are built to absorb shocks, deaths of leaders, even defeats, and yet their sovereignty remains intact.

As far as the US is concerned, no one will take cudgels against it. Power determines what is right and wrong. Morals and ethics are for poor countries to follow. 


Take the case of Arab states who lost all wars against Israel from 1947 to 1973. Through wars, Arabs couldn't force Israel to vacate an inch of land. Egypt, which was always at the forefront of hostilities against the Israeli state, embraced it. The president of Egypt who initiated the move paid with his life, yet the state of Egypt never again went to war with Israel. Germany, Japan, and Turkey, which lost in the World Wars are today thriving nation states. 

Iran, in comparison, never directly attacked Israel. It was wise enough not to repeat the follies of the Arab nations. But the Hamas attack on the Israeli civilians in 2023 turned the tables against it.

Iran's Path After the War

The US-Israel coalition will keep bombarding Iran. Both these countries, as is evident, are not in a hurry.  What Israel is doing in Palestine both these coalition partners may replicate in Iran.  Iran is not Afghanistan. It will feel the heat of these bombardments.

But Iranians are nationalists. Nationalism is above religion without any sectarianism. Post this war Iran will emerge better and has a choice to wean itself away from the Palestine issue. Its people will question the logic of supporting Palestinian armed movement against the might of Israel. As far as its proxies are concerned it is a hard call for any government that comes to power. A better relationship with its neighbours will require it to give up proxies. Remember: No country will annihilate itself for the sake of another country. 


Pic courtesy: Javid Dar. Wikimedia. 


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